Can Milan shake Juve status?
Milan-Juventus used to be a Scudetto showdown, now it’s first against second again, but Andrea Tallarita writes there’s something else at stake on Saturday.
We probably won't win a Nobel Prize for saying that the times, they are a-changing, but that's a good song to play ahead of this Saturday's Milan-Juventus. It's the big match of Week 9 and after years of irrelevance, their positions make it not just a reflection of the game's by-gone aura.
Even the most die-hard Rossoneri fan would have a tough time denying that their unwelcome dinner guests are currently superior to them in just about every category, on and off the pitch. And this goes double now, as Vincenzo Montella's team struggles with injuries in all departments.
It seems like an age ago, but these two clubs used to be pretty much the only two powers of relevance in Serie A. Between 1992 and 2005 the only teams that stole a Scudetto under their hegemony were Lazio and Roma, who notched one each. Every single other season ended up painted black, and white or red by turns.
The last time this fixture was even remotely important for the top spots was in February 2012, when funnily enough it was Max Allegri on the Milan bench raging at Juve over referees. It was the 1-1 draw of the Sulley Muntari incident – a header that Gigi Buffon clawed away only after it had clearly crossed the line, yet was not spotted by the officials.
Today, what used to be a Scudetto-match is anything but. The Old Lady are facing a cultural rival, not a real one, whilst the Rossoneri find themselves in an unfamiliar situation: they are second, and yet wouldn't dare whisper the word 'Scudetto'. A third-place finish at the end of the season would in fact have them over the moon. Isn't this somewhat surreal?
What truly is at stake on Saturday evening is not the title, only the status quo. Juventus will be playing to defend it, Milan to challenge it. After all, another surprising result along the lines of Inter's win at San Siro in Week 4 would represent an immense shock, one which could have terrific short-term repercussions on the league.
Montella's men would fly two points away from the top spot, whilst keeping Napoli below them and Roma at least on equal grounds. If the latter two teams win their matches against Crotone and Palermo, the gap between first and fourth would suddenly become excitingly narrow – a mere three points. The entire Scudetto race would be blown open again, after everyone left it for dead just three weeks in.
We say that these effects would only count for the short-term because, as Inter already proved, a single result isn't enough to destabilise a league. Juventus have exceptional mental fortitude and would probably go back to winning very quickly, whilst the structural frailties of Milan would resurface, no less than the (considerably less worrying ones) of Napoli and Roma.
The safest assumption after a hypothetical Milan win, then, would be for the status quo to reassert itself within the middle term. Juventus may have experienced occasional trouble in getting their midfield to gel, but there are simply no reasonable grounds to expect a defeat to shake them. They lost to Inter once, and got right back on track.
Similarly, Milan will go into this game feeling that even a draw would be a result worth its weight in gold (a sentiment Napoli and Roma will most certainly share). It must be said that there is a lot to be liked in their team, from their plentiful goal-scoring ability to their many young, Italian talents.
But the quality and maturity of their individual players remains far below that of the top competitors, and there is only so much Montella can do to compensate. They look a lot better than they did in the past few years, sure, but that's no more genuine praise than saying death by natural causes looks preferable to crucifixion.
The possibility exists that Milan not only win on Saturday, but produce what people call a 'grand climacteric', or a 'black swan' – a turning point of critical importance. It could signal the beginning of a red and black return to glory, and simultaneously the first crack in Juventus' perfect winning machine.
At this stage this is romantic yarn rather than smart money. But football does do unexpected romance pretty well, and after all there's that Nobel laureate who said the times – well, you know the rest.
At least this time San Siro is equipped with goal-line technology, albeit a little late for Muntari.
http://www.football-italia.net/93187/ca ... uve-status